Political Analysts Weigh in on ANC’s Strategies to Rebuild Gauteng and Revitalise KwaZulu-Natal
The African National Congress (ANC) faces mounting renewal challenges as it seeks to rebuild its provincial structures in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng. Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula has emphasized the need to “strengthen” struggling provinces, dismissing rumors of disbandment. However, political analysts argue that the path to renewal is fraught with complexities, particularly in these key regions that performed poorly in the 2024 general elections.
Gauteng: A Delicate Balancing Act
In Gauteng, the ANC secured only 34% of the provincial vote. Despite this, Provincial Chairperson Panyaza Lesufi has managed to maintain a minority government and exert influence in municipalities lost during the 2021 local elections. Analysts suggest that intervening in Gauteng’s leadership may be politically risky.
Dirk Kotze, a political analyst from the University of South Africa (Unisa), notes that Lesufi has projected confidence in his leadership, which complicates efforts to introduce reforms. “If the ANC acts against Lesufi, it will appear as a direct criticism of his leadership,” says Kotze.
KZN: From Stronghold to Struggle
Once an ANC bastion, KwaZulu-Natal’s support dropped below 50% in the recent elections. This decline has been attributed to several factors, including the rise of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party. Analysts warn that disbanding KZN’s Provincial Executive Committee (PEC) could drive disillusioned members to rival parties.
Kotze stresses that the ANC must tread carefully to avoid alienating its members further. “If they dissolve the PEC, it may result in defections to the MK party. The ANC is in a precarious situation in KwaZulu-Natal,” he explains.
The province has also witnessed tensions with the ANC’s national leadership since Cyril Ramaphosa became president of the party. Kotze points out that any intervention must balance the need for reform with the risk of reinforcing perceptions of unequal treatment.
The Road Ahead: Building Unity and Strength
Mbalula has expressed optimism about the ANC’s future, assuring supporters that the party will regain its strength. However, the challenges in Gauteng and KZN highlight the broader issues the ANC must address to remain politically viable.
The ANC’s decision to form a government of national unity (GNU) with other parties, including the Democratic Alliance (DA), underscores the urgency of internal renewal. Political experts believe that successfully navigating the complex dynamics in KZN and Gauteng will be critical to the party’s long-term survival.
The ANC’s journey to renewal is filled with difficult decisions. Strengthening provincial structures in Gauteng and KZN will require bold but cautious leadership. As Mbalula faces mounting pressures, the ANC’s ability to rebuild its base and foster unity will be critical to shaping its future trajectory.
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