Eskom’s Strong Performance and Energy Availability Factor Project Stability in South Africa’s Power Grid
Goodbye to load shedding? In a groundbreaking shift, the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA) has announced a major turnaround in the country’s energy landscape. According to its latest report, load shedding is set to be a thing of the past until at least 2029, thanks to Eskom’s generation recovery. This marks a significant departure from the previous years, where power cuts were a constant concern. Eskom’s efforts to improve energy availability and its focus on enhancing the performance of key power stations have been instrumental in stabilizing the power supply.
Eskom’s Generation Turnaround
The report outlines that Eskom’s generation turnaround, which focuses on boosting the performance of struggling stations and ensuring consistent output from more reliable plants, has been successful. From April to September, Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF)—a key measure of the system’s capacity—rose from 55% to 63%, an 8% improvement. This improvement is crucial in maintaining energy availability and, for the first time in years, eradicating load shedding.
The EAF has been consistently strong, exceeding 60% for most of the past 14 weeks, including five weeks where it reached over 65%. This marks a sharp contrast to the previous year, where Eskom struggled with an EAF of just 54.69%. The report indicates that Eskom’s strategic focus on plant recovery is yielding positive results and could maintain stability in the electricity system for years to come.
System Adequacy and Future Projections
According to the NTCSA’s Medium-Term System Adequacy Report, the electricity supply will remain “adequate” until 2029 if Eskom continues to perform at these levels. The report highlights two primary scenarios: a “high EAF” scenario, which assumes continued recovery, and a “low EAF” scenario that would result in insufficient generation capacity. However, the base case scenario assumes that Eskom will depend minimally on its open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs), which could be phased out by 2025.
The successful integration of two large coal units—Medupi Unit 4 and Kusile Unit 6—by 2025 will play a pivotal role in ensuring system adequacy. Delays in these projects would have a significant negative impact on the power system, emphasizing the importance of timely completion.
Coal Shutdown and Renewable Energy Transition
The report anticipates a gradual shift away from coal, with the closure of outdated Eskom plants slated for 2029, a move that will reduce capacity by over 5 GW. However, Eskom’s investment in renewable energy will play a vital role in compensating for these losses. The energy utility is set to add nearly 3,000 MW of battery energy storage capacity and almost 6,800 MW from renewable sources by 2029. This forms part of a broader strategy to diversify South Africa’s energy mix and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
With an additional 2,000 MW expected from independent power producers by 2029, Eskom is confident that it can manage a growing energy surplus. This excess energy could present new challenges, such as system overload, but it is a problem that the country will gladly face in the face of progress.
The NTCSA’s report underscores a promising future for South Africa’s energy landscape. With Eskom’s impressive generation recovery, improved energy availability, and increasing reliance on renewable energy, the country is poised to avoid load shedding until at least 2029. While challenges remain, particularly with the potential for excess energy on the grid, the report’s optimistic outlook signals a turning point in South Africa’s battle with load shedding.
For the first time in years, there is hope that South Africa’s power supply will remain stable, providing much-needed relief to businesses, households, and the economy at large.
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