South African motorists have been urged to prepare for a possible petrol price increase in October, with just two weeks to go before the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) finalises adjustments.
CEF Data Signals a Hike
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), tracking fuel price trends for the second week of September 2025, indicates that petrol is heading for an increase. Projections show a hike of between 13 and 21 cents per litre, while diesel could see some relief with a potential drop of around 9 cents per litre. Illuminating paraffin is also expected to decrease by about 12 cents per litre.
Global Petrol Price Pressures
Fuel price movements are being driven largely by international oil market volatility. Crude oil has been fluctuating between $62 and $67 a barrel since early August, resulting in an under-recovery for petrol. Recently, prices have edged upwards after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened sanctions against countries buying discounted Russian oil. Added to this, the U.S. imposed 50% import tariffs on Indian goods as a penalty for its continued Russian oil imports.
Tensions have been further inflamed by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including a major refinery in the Leningrad region and the Primorsk export hub, raising concerns over potential supply constraints.
Rand Shows Strength
On the currency front, the rand has shown resilience, firming to R17.35/$ from R17.57 at the start of September. Analysts attribute this to a weakening U.S. dollar, pressured by expectations of sharp interest rate cuts in America. While the stronger rand is providing some buffer, global oil price pressures remain the main driver of petrol under-recoveries.
Mid-Month Projections
Based on CEF’s mid-month review, motorists can expect the following changes if current trends continue:
- Petrol 93: +11 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: +19 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): -9 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): -9 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: -12 cents per litre
The DMRE is expected to announce the official adjustments at the end of the month.
Impact on Consumers
The fuel price outlook comes as South Africans brace for key economic updates this week. Statistics South Africa will release August’s inflation figures on Wednesday, while the South African Reserve Bank will reveal its repo rate decision on Thursday. Economists expect inflation to have remained steady at 3.5%, slightly above the SARB’s preferred 3%.
While the slight increase in petrol is not as sharp as past hikes, any upward movement adds pressure to already stretched household budgets.
Related article: September 2025 Petrol Price: Sharp Diesel Drop, Minimal Petrol Changes
