Motorists in South Africa may finally catch a break at the pumps in September. Currently, 93-octane petrol price is around R21.51 per litre and 95-octane at R21.59, but mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates that both petrol and diesel could see a reduction. The expected price drop comes as global oil prices weaken and the rand shows slight gains against the US dollar, although currency fluctuations still put some pressure on recoveries.

Contents

Projected Petrol Price Cuts
Oil Prices Tumble
Rand on a Firmer Footing
Expected Pump Prices in September

Projected Petrol Price Cuts

The CEF’s mid-August snapshot suggests the following expected decreases:

Petrol 93: ↓ 15 cents per litre
Petrol 95: ↓ 8 cents per litre
Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): ↓ 33 cents per litre
Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): ↓ 35 cents per litre
Illuminating Paraffin: ↓ 26 cents per litre

While these figures provide an encouraging outlook, it is important to note that they are not final. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) will confirm the official changes at the end of the month, just days before the new prices take effect.

Oil Prices Tumble

A key driver of the expected cuts is the significant dip in global oil prices. Crude oil has slid from highs of around $85 a barrel in June sparked by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran to the current $66 a barrel.

This decline stems mainly from weaker global demand caused by US tariffs on major trade partners, alongside rising oil supply as OPEC+ ramps up production. The combination of soft demand and higher supply has created a downward pull on oil prices, which in turn is easing fuel costs for South Africa.

Rand on a Firmer Footing

The rand’s recent strength has also contributed to the positive trend. A weaker US dollar, linked to global trade policy uncertainty, has provided some support for the local currency. The rand’s improvement has helped offset some of the upward pressure from oil prices, though volatility remains a risk factor.

Despite foreign policy tensions between South Africa and the US, the rand has found backing from investors turning to safe-haven commodities such as gold, one of South Africa’s key exports that remains unaffected by tariffs.

Expected Pump Prices in September

Here’s how the potential adjustments may translate for motorists at the pump:

Inland

93 Petrol: R21.36 (down from R21.51)
95 Petrol: R21.51 (down from R21.59)
Diesel 0.05%: R19.67 (down from R20.00)
Diesel 0.005%: R19.69 (down from R20.04)
Illuminating Paraffin: R13.21 (down from R13.47)

Coastal

93 Petrol: R20.57 (down from R20.72)
95 Petrol: R20.68 (down from R20.76)
Diesel 0.05%: R18.84 (down from R19.17)
Diesel 0.005%: R18.93 (down from R19.28)
Illuminating Paraffin: R12.20 (down from R12.46)

While the mid-month outlook from the CEF points to relief for South African motorists, the final figures will depend on how oil prices and currency markets perform in the coming weeks. For now, the signs are promising, with petrol and diesel prices both on track to dip in September.