Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) signals a steep rise in February petrol prices. A weaker rand coupled with surging international oil prices is poised to hit South African motorists hard. The year kicked off with higher petrol and diesel prices in January, and this trend is set to persist next month. Current projections suggest petrol prices may increase by up to 81 cents per litre, while diesel could see a hike of about 89 cents per litre.
Expected February Petrol Price Hike
- Petrol 93: 81 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: 75 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): 90 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): 88 cents per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin: 73 cents per litre
The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources has cautioned that these figures are not final. Factors such as retail margin adjustments or slate levy changes may alter these projections, with final prices confirmed at the end of January.
Why Are Fuel Prices Rising?
Fuel costs in South Africa are largely influenced by two key factors: the rand/dollar exchange rate and global oil prices. The adjustment of these prices occurs monthly, usually on the first Wednesday.
Rand/Dollar Exchange Rate
The rand has experienced a significant drop against the dollar, contributing to the anticipated fuel price increases. Starting the year at R18.78/$, the currency weakened further to R19.23/$ in mid-January. This decline has been driven by strong US economic data and uncertainty surrounding global markets.
Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, highlights the impact of US Federal Reserve policies, which are expected to slow interest rate cuts. This has not only weakened the rand but could also influence the South African Reserve Bank’s monetary policy decisions.
Global Oil Prices
Oil prices have spiked since December, rising from $70 per barrel to nearly $80 per barrel by mid-January. Key drivers include US sanctions on Russian oil and steady economic growth in the US, which has boosted demand.
While China’s shift towards electric energy may reduce oil demand in the long term, short-term volatility remains likely. Analysts expect the incoming Trump administration to introduce measures that could fuel economic growth and sustain oil prices.
Predicted February Petrol Prices
Below is a comparison of current and expected prices for February:
Inland Region
| Fuel Type | January Official | February Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | R21.34 | R22.15 |
| 95 Petrol | R21.59 | R22.34 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R19.29 | R20.19 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R19.44 | R20.32 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R13.26 | R13.99 |
Coastal Region
| Fuel Type | January Official | February Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | R20.55 | R21.36 |
| 95 Petrol | R20.80 | R21.55 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R18.50 | R19.40 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R18.68 | R19.56 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R12.26 | R12.99 |
Motorists should brace for a challenging February as petrol and diesel prices are set to rise sharply. With a volatile rand and climbing oil prices, these increases may strain household budgets further. South Africans are urged to stay informed as the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources finalises prices at the end of the month.
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