The Road Traffic Management Corporation (RTMC) has proposed a nationwide reduction of speed limits by 10km/h, aiming to curb South Africa’s high rate of road fatalities. Despite the initial announcement during a presentation to the Portfolio Committee on Transport in February 2022, the RTMC has not provided any updates on the progress of the initiative.

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The proposed changes would reduce speed limits across the country as follows:

Urban roads: Reduced from 60km/h to 50km/h.
Non-freeway rural roads: Reduced from 100km/h to 90km/h.
Freeways: Reduced from 120km/h to 110km/h.

These changes are part of the RTMC’s broader 365 Campaign, which focuses on addressing road safety concerns, particularly in areas where pedestrians, cyclists, and motor vehicles frequently interact. Simon Zwane, the RTMC’s chief communication officer, explained that the reductions align with recommendations from the United Nations (UN) aimed at reducing road fatalities globally.

As a member of the UN roads council, South Africa is obligated to consider these recommendations, which encourage speed reductions to improve safety for all road users. However, Zwane admitted that authorities have yet to initiate the formal regulatory processes required to enforce these changes.

The Debate on New Speed Limits

While the RTMC promotes these reductions as a step toward safer roads, the proposal has sparked debate among road safety experts. Rob Handfield-Jones, managing director of Driving.co.za, expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of lowering speed limits in reducing fatalities.

“There is no evidence that speed prosecutions result in safer roads,” he stated. “In 1998, South Africa had its safest year on record, despite many roads having higher speed limits than they do now.”

Handfield-Jones argued that the government’s focus on speed enforcement distracts from more pressing issues, such as driver behavior. A 2003 study of fatal accidents in South Africa revealed that only 7.9% were attributable to speed. The remaining 92.1% were linked to other factors, such as driver errors, insufficient awareness, and improper following distances.

“Extending this analysis to all crashes would show that speed fades into insignificance compared to other factors,” he added.

Lessons from Past Speed Limit Changes

Handfield-Jones also criticized the government’s track record with speed limit reductions. He highlighted the decision to lower speed limits for public transport vehicles from 120km/h to 100km/h, which he claimed had no measurable impact on road safety.

“In fact, four years after this change, the bus occupant fatality rate rose by nearly 30% in a single year between 2005 and 2006,” he said.

He further warned that excessively low speeds could pose unforeseen dangers. Drawing on Leonard Evans’ 2004 book Traffic Safety, Handfield-Jones explained that crashes involving significant changes in velocity (delta-V) are often fatal.

Evans’ research revealed that the median delta-V at which vehicle occupants are killed is 39km/h. However, crashes with a delta-V exceeding 115km/h are almost always fatal, regardless of whether the speed was within legal limits.

“These findings drive global efforts to lower urban speed limits, but it’s crucial to note that modern vehicle safety features have also played a significant role in reducing fatalities,” he explained. “Ultimately, whether one crashes into a bridge at 120km/h or 140km/h, the outcome is the same—you’re unlikely to survive.”

Toward a Comprehensive Solution

While the RTMC’s proposed speed reductions may align with global trends, critics argue that they fail to address the root causes of South Africa’s road safety challenges. Handfield-Jones described the emphasis on speed as a “red herring,” calling for a shift in focus toward more effective interventions.

He advocated for enhanced driver training, stricter enforcement of road laws unrelated to speed, and better road infrastructure to reduce accidents. “Improving driver awareness and behavior will have a far greater impact on road safety than blanket speed reductions,” he said.

What Lies Ahead

The proposed speed limit reductions remain in limbo, with no formal steps taken toward implementation. As the debate continues, South Africans are left questioning whether the initiative will deliver meaningful improvements or simply create new challenges. While the government’s intentions to reduce road fatalities are commendable, experts like Handfield-Jones emphasize the importance of a balanced, evidence-based approach. For now, the future of South Africa’s speed limits—and their potential impact on road safety—remains uncertain.