South African motorists are heading for a meaningful diesel and petrol price decrease in February 2026, with early projections pointing to a cut of up to 69 cents per litre for petrol. The expected adjustment, tracked by the Central Energy Fund (CEF), could offer short-term relief to households and businesses facing sustained transport costs. The final decision will be confirmed by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) on Wednesday, 4 February, when new prices take effect nationwide.
For Gauteng drivers, where daily commuting distances are long, and road transport underpins much of the local economy, even a moderate reduction at the pumps can translate into immediate financial breathing room.
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Petrol Price Decrease Expected in February 2026
Despite renewed volatility in international oil markets, the CEF’s latest month-to-date data continues to support a downward fuel price adjustment for February. Earlier concerns that global oil prices could erase the expected relief have not yet materialised into a full reversal.
While the projected decrease has narrowed slightly over recent weeks, current indicators still favour motorists, provided market conditions remain stable through the remainder of January.
How South Africa’s Fuel Price Is Calculated Each Month
Fuel prices in South Africa are adjusted monthly using a regulated pricing formula. The CEF monitors two key inputs throughout the month:
- The average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate
- The average international price of refined petroleum products
These figures determine the basic fuel price, which is then adjusted by the DMRE. Any late-month currency movements or shifts in oil prices can materially affect the outcome, even in the final days before announcement.
Why Global Oil Prices Are Still a Risk for February’s Cut
The primary risk to February’s projected decrease remains the rising cost of oil globally. International crude benchmarks have shown upward pressure driven by supply concerns and renewed demand expectations in major economies.
According to the CEF’s tracking data, global oil price increases have already reduced the size of what could have been a larger cut. The rand has, for now, provided partial relief by holding relatively firm against the US dollar, a balance that could still change before month-end.
February 2026 Fuel Price Projections: Petrol, Diesel, and Paraffin
Based on current CEF data, the following fuel price adjustments are projected for February 2026:
- Petrol 93: decrease of 69 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: decrease of 66 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 63 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 71 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 60 cents per litre
These figures remain provisional and will only be confirmed once the DMRE publishes the official adjustment.
What This Means for Gauteng Residents
For Gauteng residents, fuel price movements tend to be felt more immediately than in coastal provinces due to higher inland transport costs. A reduction of this scale can ease pressure on household budgets already strained by commuting expenses, school transport, and rising food prices linked to logistics costs.
Public transport operators, delivery services, and small businesses that rely heavily on road transport may also experience temporary cost relief, helping stabilise operating expenses across the province.
Why the February Fuel Price Adjustment Matters Now
February marks a return to full economic activity following the festive season, with schools open and businesses operating at normal capacity. Fuel costs play a central role in shaping monthly household spending during this period.
A confirmed decrease could help soften the cumulative impact of earlier fuel hikes, even if the relief proves short-lived.
When the Official Petrol Price Change Will Be Announced
The DMRE will announce the final fuel price adjustment on Wednesday, 4 February 2026, with new prices taking effect at midnight. Until then, projections remain subject to daily market movements.
Historically, fuel price outcomes have shifted in the final week of the month when currency volatility or oil price spikes occur.
FAQ: February 2026 Petrol and Diesel Price Changes
Will fuel prices definitely decrease in February 2026?
No. The figures are projections and may change before the official announcement.
Why do petrol and diesel prices change by different amounts?
Each fuel type is linked to different international benchmarks and cost structures.
Do Gauteng motorists pay more than coastal provinces?
Yes. Inland fuel prices are higher due to transport and storage costs.
When will the new prices take effect?
At midnight on Wednesday, 4 February 2026.
Can fuel prices increase again in March?
Yes. Prices are reviewed monthly and depend on market conditions in February.
What Happens Next Before Fuel Prices Are Finalised
The CEF will continue monitoring exchange rate and oil price data until the end of January. These figures will inform the DMRE’s final pricing decision ahead of the February implementation.
If current trends persist, motorists can expect a meaningful, though potentially temporary, reduction at the pumps. Any late-month shifts, however, could still narrow the anticipated cut before it is formally confirmed.
