Petrol price relief is on the horizon for South African motorists in November 2025, as global oil prices continue their steep decline. Brent crude has slumped toward the $60 a barrel mark its sharpest losing streak since March paving the way for a significant drop in local petrol and diesel prices.
Global Tensions Drive Oil Down
According to Bloomberg’s market analysis, the main catalyst behind the oil slump is the escalating tension between the United States and China. Renewed fears of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies have rattled markets, with concerns that strained trade relations will curb global economic growth and reduce energy demand.
While a temporary truce was declared earlier this year, China has since tightened its grip on rare-earth mineral exports a move that has angered Washington. Beijing, on the other hand, blames the US for inflaming tensions by introducing restrictive trade measures after meetings in Madrid.
As both sides dig in, global oil markets are factoring in weaker demand ahead. This coincides with increasing oil output, with industry analysts expecting a global oversupply of around 20% in 2026. The result: oil prices have already dropped 3% this week and nearly 20% since the start of the year.
Local Fuel Price Recovery Builds
This downward pressure on oil is translating into stronger over-recoveries for local fuel pricing, ranging between 16 and 50 cents per litre. Analysts predict further drops in the coming weeks, with some projections pointing to oil dipping well below $60 a barrel a scenario that could amplify over-recoveries going into December.
The rand has also remained fairly resilient against the dollar despite recent volatility, helping to buffer motorists against larger fluctuations.
Mid-Month Petrol Price Forecast
Current estimates suggest the following price adjustments for November 2025:
- Petrol 93: decrease of 61 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: decrease of 58 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 29 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 29 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 14 cents per litre
The drop in global oil prices is the primary driver behind these expected cuts, complemented by a rand/dollar exchange rate that, while slightly weaker, remains more stable than in September.
Rand Outlook Holds Opportunities and Risks
Economists say the rand could strengthen further in the coming weeks, potentially pushing below the R17.00/$ level. Rising gold and platinum prices and favorable trade terms are adding to this optimism.
However, the local currency is not immune to external shocks. Its recent trading range between R17.07 and R17.50 per dollar reflects how global risk sentiment, geopolitical developments, speculation over US interest rate cuts, and the ongoing US government shutdown are influencing its direction.
A Welcome Break for Consumers
If the current trends hold, South Africans could enjoy noticeable savings at the fuel pumps from November. This comes at a crucial time as households prepare for year-end travel and rising living costs.
Market watchers will keep a close eye on both the oil price trajectory and the rand’s performance, as these will determine the final adjustment announced at month-end. For now, the outlook is looking brighter for motorists.
Related article: November 2025 Petrol Price Drop: Major Fuel Cost Relief Ahead
