The U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could spark a repeat of the 1973 oil crisis — here’s how South Africa and global markets may be affected.
Iran Strike-Fuel Crisis Looming: A chill has settled over global markets following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities this past weekend — and for many South Africans, déjà vu is setting in. Could we be on the brink of another fuel crisis like the infamous 1973 oil embargo? Experts are warning that the geopolitical tinderbox in the Middle East could set off a chain reaction that touches every petrol pump in the world, especially here at home.
The Shadow of 1973 Returns
The recent military intervention by the United States in the Israel-Iran conflict has sparked fears that history might repeat itself. In 1973, the Arab-Israeli war led to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) drastically slashing oil exports, pushing global fuel prices through the roof and crippling fuel supply chains.
In South Africa, the government responded with extreme austerity measures — cutting the national speed limit to 80km/h and banning fuel sales on weekends. These events forced the establishment of the Strategic Fuel Reserve, a safety net that still exists today.
Now, as American bombers strike Iranian nuclear sites, fuel market anxiety is rising again. Could we see similar emergency measures in 2025?
What Experts Are Saying
Economist Dawie Roodt is urging caution and patience:
“We will have to wait and see… It might affect petrol prices, the inflation rate, and the rand.”
The ripple effects of this conflict could tighten global fuel supply chains and add pressure to the South African economy, already battling inflation and a weakening currency.
Dr Benjamin Rapanyane, senior political lecturer at North-West University, highlighted a potential worst-case scenario:
“Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may have a devastating impact on Africa in general and South Africa in particular.”
This crucial waterway handles about 20% of the world’s oil shipments. Any military escalation or blockades there would send crude prices soaring.
South Africa’s Diplomatic Tightrope
The political implications for South Africa are complex. Political analyst Piet Croucamp warned:
“It might be hard for South Africa to stay out of it, especially with the court case against Israel. There’s global condemnation, and we cannot afford silence.”
This geopolitical stance could impact trade relations or even foreign investment. Meanwhile, Roland Henwood noted:
“If SA reacts strongly in favour of Iran, it may have negative political consequences. Oil price increases could have either short-term or long-term implications.”
SA’s alignment with BRICS nations may further complicate its response, especially if the bloc adopts a unified stance against U.S. aggression.
What This Means for Petrol Prices and Consumers
If tensions escalate, motorists in South Africa could see another painful spike in petrol and diesel prices, possibly as early as next month. This would have knock-on effects on food prices, transportation, and inflation — just as many households are beginning to recover from past economic shocks.
Roodt warns that how long the conflict lasts will determine the scale of the impact:
“This could be quite a thing for South Africa. It just depends on how long it goes on and how serious it is.”
What Can Be Done?
South Africa’s Strategic Fuel Reserve offers some short-term protection, but it’s limited. The real concern is duration — if this conflict drags on and disrupts international shipping routes, long-term supply issues and price instability are inevitable.
Global Reactions and What to Watch
While global reactions to the U.S. strike have been “muted” so far, all eyes are on OPEC, Iran’s allies, and the Strait of Hormuz. Should shipping be disrupted or retaliatory strikes affect oil facilities, markets will respond swiftly.
Keep an eye on:
- Statements from BRICS, OPEC, and the African Union
- Currency markets (especially the rand vs dollar)
- Crude oil futures and shipping indexes
Final Thoughts
This is a volatile situation with no clear endpoint. For South Africans, the best course is to stay informed, budget for possible price hikes, and advocate for peaceful diplomatic solutions.
Another fuel crisis isn’t guaranteed — but the warning lights are definitely flashing
Also read: Petrol Price Decrease: Diesel May Hit Three-Year Low in June
