South African motorists may be in for more good news at the fuel pumps in June 2025, as early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to another potential drop in petrol prices.
Preliminary figures for the first week of May suggest a favorable start for fuel price movements. This is largely due to a combination of lower international oil prices and a stronger rand, both of which are contributing to a positive fuel price outlook. According to the CEF, petrol currently shows an over-recovery of approximately 56 cents per litre, while diesel is enjoying an over-recovery of about 94 cents per litre.
Early Indicators Point to a Decrease
If these trends continue through May, South Africans can look forward to further relief in June. Current projections suggest the following possible adjustments:
- Petrol 93: ↓ 57 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: ↓ 56 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): ↓ 94 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): ↓ 94 cents per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin: ↓ 89 cents per litre
While it’s still too early in the month to confirm these changes, the direction is promising. The beginning of May saw the market in a strong position, and it would take a significant swing in oil prices or exchange rates to reverse the current over-recovery.
Rand Strength and Oil Weakness: A Win-Win for Motorists
Two key elements influencing fuel prices—global oil prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate—are both currently working in South Africa’s favor.
The rand has strengthened in early May, recovering to R18.16 to the US dollar. This recovery is largely attributed to the US Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates, a shift in tone that has brought renewed optimism for rate cuts in the US. Lower US interest rates typically weaken the dollar, making the rand stronger in comparison.
Economists, including Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop, anticipate that this trend may hold in the coming weeks. Expectations for local rate cuts have also improved, adding further support to the rand.
Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices have dropped below $62 a barrel. This decline is driven by global economic caution stemming from ongoing trade tensions, particularly those initiated under US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. These trade conflicts have led to concerns about weakened demand, which—combined with increased oil supply—has caused prices to dip.
Analysts caution that while talks between the US and China or potential trade agreements with the UK could stabilize the oil market, any gains may be limited. For now, the lower oil price is contributing significantly—between 30 and 67 cents per litre—to South Africa’s fuel over-recovery.
Final Petrol Prices Confirmed in June
While the outlook remains positive, it’s important to remember that the final petrol and diesel prices will only be confirmed at the end of the month. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will announce the official changes, which will take effect at midnight on Tuesday, 3 June 2025.
For now, South African vehicle owners are advised to enjoy the current lower prices but remain cautious with fuel consumption until final adjustments are confirmed. If market conditions hold steady, June could bring further relief at the pumps.
All signs currently point to a fuel price decrease in June, not an increase. However, as with any commodity dependent on volatile global markets, this projection remains subject to change.
Related article: Official Petrol Price Drops for May 2025: What You Need to Know About the Decrease
