Experts Warn of Potential Stage 1 Load-Shedding Due to Supply-Demand Imbalance
South Africa may experience stage 1 load-shedding towards the end of January and the beginning of February 2025, according to a forecast by Cresco, a leading project development company. This anticipated situation arises from a combination of increased electricity demand and reduced generation capacity due to planned maintenance.
Eskom’s Strategy to Balance the Grid
Cresco’s executive director, Robert Futter, has acknowledged Eskom’s efforts to manage supply-demand imbalances effectively. Using diesel-powered peaking power stations and load curtailment contracts with large electricity users, Eskom has maintained grid stability so far.
“Many large users are on special contracts with Eskom, making it easier for the utility to balance the grid,” Futter explained.
Factors Driving Potential Load-Shedding
While the grid has been stable recently, two primary factors contribute to the risk of load-shedding in early 2025:
- Higher Electricity Demand: The post-holiday period typically sees increased consumption.
- Reduced Generation Capacity: Planned maintenance will take more of Eskom’s generating units offline during this time.
Futter highlighted that while the situation is sensitive, it is not as dire as during the peak load-shedding years between 2021 and 2024.
The Role of Aging Infrastructure
Citing Eskom’s reliance on aging infrastructure, Futter drew an analogy to maintaining an old Land Rover Defender, which may perform well for a time but is prone to breakdowns. If unplanned outages occur, South Africa could face power cuts despite current stability.
The Outlook Beyond 2025
Looking further ahead, Cresco forecasts limited load-shedding between 2025 and 2027. However, the company warns of potential challenges by 2028 unless investments in energy storage, such as advanced battery systems, are prioritized.
Futter emphasized the risks of relying on renewable energy without adequate storage solutions. While the addition of wind and solar capacity is promising, these sources do not align with peak electricity demand, especially during evening hours.
Eskom’s Optimistic Projections
Eskom’s 52-week outlook largely aligns with Cresco’s forecast, showing the risk of power shortages increasing in late January. However, the utility remains optimistic about the success of its Operational Recovery Plan, which aims to achieve a 70% energy availability factor (EAF) by March 2025.
If Eskom reaches this milestone, spokesperson Daphne Mokwena predicts South Africa could leave load-shedding behind. “We are in a very good position to say that by March 2025, load-shedding could become a thing of the past,” Mokwena stated.
While South Africa’s immediate energy outlook appears stable, the risk of stage 1 load-shedding in early 2025 serves as a reminder of the fragile balance in the country’s power grid. Eskom’s continued efforts to enhance energy availability and invest in sustainable storage solutions will be critical in ensuring long-term stability.
Also read: Save the Date: Eskom Schedules Planned Power Outage for Maintenance Work
