The start of 2025 has already brought unwelcome news for South African motorists, and February looks set to continue the trend. Early forecasts indicate a significant rise in February petrol prices, impacting both petrol and diesel. These adjustments come against the backdrop of global economic shifts, fluctuating oil prices, and a weakened rand, which have combined to create a perfect storm for South African fuel costs. With the official adjustments taking effect on Wednesday, 5 February 2025, consumers should prepare for a tighter squeeze on their wallets.
February Petrol Price: Another Blow for Consumers
If forecasts hold true, February will mark the second consecutive month of fuel price hikes. January already brought sharp increases, driven by international oil price fluctuations and the rand’s depreciation. Petrol prices rose by 12 cents per litre for 95 Unleaded and 19 cents for 93 Unleaded, bringing prices to R21.59 and R21.34 per litre, respectively. Diesel prices also climbed, with wholesale rates for 50ppm and 500ppm increasing by 10.5 and 7.5 cents per litre.
February’s Expected Price Adjustments
The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) latest data suggests even more significant hikes in February:
- Petrol 93: 69 cents per litre increase
- Petrol 95: 65 cents per litre increase
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): 70 cents per litre increase
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): 74 cents per litre increase
- Illuminating Paraffin: 52 cents per litre increase
For an average tank of petrol, these adjustments could cost motorists between R28 and R53 more, depending on vehicle size. Diesel price hikes are also likely to drive up transport costs for goods, food, and resources, further straining consumers.
Key Drivers: Oil Prices and Exchange Rates
Fuel price adjustments in South Africa are closely tied to global oil prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate. A weaker rand, combined with rising crude oil prices, has been the primary driver of the current under-recovery trend, which started in November 2024.
China’s anticipated economic growth in 2025 is expected to boost global oil demand. President Xi Jinping’s recent announcement of proactive measures to encourage growth has already affected oil prices. Meanwhile, ongoing supply concerns due to sanctions on Russia and Iran are adding to the upward pressure on crude prices.
Domestically, the rand’s value continues to struggle against the US dollar. With the rand trading at R18.87 to the dollar as of 8 January 2025, the strong dollar is compounding local challenges.
Official Adjustments Pending
While the CEF’s data provides a glimpse of what to expect, final fuel price adjustments will also account for factors like the slate levy and retail margin changes. These updates will be confirmed by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, with new prices officially taking effect on 5 February 2025.
Brace for Tough Times Ahead
The February petrol price increases will likely have widespread implications for South Africans. Beyond higher transport costs, the ripple effects could impact food prices and the broader cost of living. As the rand continues to struggle and global oil dynamics evolve, South African motorists are urged to budget carefully for the months ahead. While there is hope for eventual stability, the immediate outlook suggests that 2025 will be a challenging year for consumers at the pump.
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