A Grim Outlook as Community Services and Part-Time Employment Take the Hardest Hit

South Africa’s labour market continues to face challenges as 133,000 jobs were lost in the third quarter of 2024, according to the latest Quarterly Employment Statistics released by Statistics SA on Thursday. The data paints a sobering picture of a struggling economy where both full-time and part-time employment have suffered substantial declines.

Job Losses and Employment Trends

The statistics reveal that total employment decreased by 2.7% over the past year, amounting to a loss of 294,000 jobs in the formal sector. Community services recorded the most significant decline, shedding 131,000 jobs, while trade and construction industries showed minor gains, adding 19,000 and 4,000 jobs, respectively.

A closer look at the numbers shows a 0.1% dip in full-time employment, now standing at 9.454 million, primarily affected by losses in the business services and trade sectors. Part-time employment took a harder hit, with 119,000 fewer jobs in the third quarter, leaving the part-time workforce at 1.151 million.

Senior economist Jee-A van der Linde from Oxford Economics Africa emphasized the correlation between these employment figures and the quarterly economic contraction.

“Economic stagnation and policy paralysis continue to impede the creation of sufficient employment opportunities,” said Van der Linde, highlighting that these challenges exacerbate unemployment and income inequality.

Economic Outlook and Hopes for Recovery

Despite the grim statistics, some economists see glimmers of hope. Koketso Mano, senior economist at FNB, projects a more optimistic economic outlook for South Africa, with growth potentially reaching 2% as early as next year. She cites structural reforms, infrastructure maintenance, and investment as critical factors that could drive productivity, profitability, and employment creation.

Dr. Elna Moolman, head of South Africa macroeconomic research at Standard Bank Group, pointed out that while there are some positive trends in employment data, much of the growth occurred in the informal sector or through government part-time programs.

“It’s important to note that formal private sector employment outside the agricultural sector essentially remained stagnant,” she said, urging caution when interpreting the data.

Sector-Specific Challenges

While construction shows promise due to infrastructure development, crime-related challenges and policy stagnation hinder broader employment growth. Additionally, skills shortages and a lack of job-stimulating policies continue to suppress South Africa’s job creation potential.

What Lies Ahead?

The Quarterly Employment Statistics underscore the urgent need for strategic reforms to combat high unemployment and income inequality. As economists like Mano and Moolman suggest, achieving sustainable job growth will require a combination of structural reforms, investment in infrastructure, and a focus on lowering operating costs to stimulate domestic demand.

For now, however, the South African labor market faces a challenging path forward, with significant efforts needed to reverse the downward trend and create a more equitable and prosperous job market.

Also read: South Africa Employment Rises by 294,000 in Q3 2024: Eastern Cape Leads with 83,000 New Jobs