Motorists in South Africa can look forward to a much-needed reprieve at the fuel pumps, as petrol price cuts are set to drop for the fifth consecutive month. Beginning Wednesday, October 2, 2024, substantial decreases are expected for both petrol and diesel, bringing fuel prices to their lowest levels in almost three years.

What to Expect from the Petrol Price Cuts

According to unaudited month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), the price of petrol is expected to decrease by R1.13 per litre for 95 Unleaded and R1.06 per litre for 93 Unleaded. Diesel prices are predicted to drop by between R1.11 and R1.13 per litre, depending on the type (50ppm or 500ppm).

For motorists living along the coast, these reductions mean a litre of 95 Unleaded petrol could cost around R20.27, while in Gauteng, the price is projected to hover around R21.06. The slightly cheaper 93 Unleaded is anticipated to retail at R20.73. Diesel prices, excluding retail margins, are likely to sit at R17.82 per litre at the coast and R18.58 inland.

However, these figures are subject to confirmation, as the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is set to announce the official fuel price adjustments after completing their final calculations early this week.

What’s Behind the Fuel Price Drop?

The ongoing drop in international oil prices is the key factor behind the October reductions. Brent Crude oil prices dipped below $70 per barrel for the first time since December 2021, contributing to the fuel price relief. This decrease, combined with the stronger South African rand, has led to an over-recovery in fuel prices—about 92 cents for petrol and an additional 22 cents due to the rand’s improvement.

Petrol is now expected to be around R1.50 cheaper than it was in January 2024, marking significant savings for consumers who have faced fluctuating costs over the past two years.

Possible Risks Ahead

While the current outlook is positive, the global situation remains fragile. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Lebanon, could quickly disrupt oil markets, potentially driving prices up again. A surge in oil prices could reverse some of the gains made, depending on how the geopolitical situation unfolds.

Conclusion: A Welcome Relief, but Caution Ahead

For now, South African motorists can enjoy the benefit of lower fuel costs, with petrol and diesel prices falling to levels not seen since February 2022. As international oil prices and the rand’s strength continue to influence local fuel prices, the trend could persist—at least in the short term. However, consumers should remain cautious, as global tensions could quickly cause a reversal in this welcome relief at the pump.