Post Elections Coalition Talks: Which Parties Are More Likely to Marry?
The 2024 South African elections have just ended and have seen political dramas and major shifts of allegiances. Led by Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC has failed to gain the simple majority in the parliamentary election for the first time in the last thirty years, since Apartheid.
Key Actors and Potential Alliances
African National Congress (ANC): With Cyril Ramaphosa as the leader of the ANC, its support was reduced to 41 percent. 9%, down from 57. 5% in a more recent poll in the 2019 elections. This has been due to continued displeasure in economic growth, lack of development, insane corruption, and poor governance under Ramaphosa’s presidency (IOL | News that Connects South Africans) (iAfrica). However, it is still a major player in the formation of coalitions mainly to cling to power and further the reform agenda of Ramaphosa.
Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF): The EFF which is associated with revolutionary policies such as the expropriation of land without compensation and placing key sectors under state control, has secured 9. 5% of the vote. This makes the party a potential, yet problematic coalition partner for the ANC due to its commitment to the traditional left wing policies (IOL | News that Connects South Africans) (Daily Maverick). However, calls for radical economic liberalization may divide the ANC and discourage demoralized factions.
uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party: Jacob Zuma’s newly formed MK party has emerged as a big threat, after gaining about 11. 8% of the votes. The MK party has a similar policy to the EFF and proposing the nationalization of land and mines may scare off foreign investors (IOL | News that Connects South Africans) (Daily Maverick) (iAfrica). Zuma has been barred from parliament because of some legal cases he is facing, however, he is powerful. The MK party has surpassed the ANC in Zuma’s home region that is KwaZulu-Natal.
Democratic Alliance (DA): The DA continued to be the largest opposition party; however, the overall support only marginally increased. Popular because of its anti-immigrant policies and its stance against the expropriation of land without compensation, the DA’s cooperation with ANC will be a move to the political economic center-right (IOL | News that Connects South Africans).
Challenges and Dynamics
Coalition Dynamics:
ANC and EFF: If the ANC were to form an alliance with the EFF, it would lean to the left where it may consider nationalization and land reform. While this collaboration is best understood as ideologically consistent, some practical difficulties in implementing it might arise.
ANC and MK: The MK has expressed its preparedness to form coalitions but at the same time, categorically stated its unwillingness to do business with the ANC under the leadership of Ramaphosa. Zuma and Ramaphosa are known to be bitter rivals. As “sworn enemies”, they bring tribal rivalry into the political rivalry (Daily Maverick) (iAfrica).
DA and ANC: A coalition with the DA would be much more centralist, incorporating some economic changes without any radical nationalisation policies. However, this partnership could cost the ANC the support of her left wing factions.
Foreign Investor Concerns: The policy propositions made by the EFF and MK to farm white South Africans and nationalize mines are worrying to foreign investors. These policies might result in capital flight as well as economic instability which makes the negotiations of the coalitions more complex (Daily Maverick) (iAfrica).
Leadership and Future Prospects: The leadership question within the ANC still holds the key or persists as a problem. The unwillingness of the MK party to support an ANC, led by Ramaphosa, suggests that any coalition that might be contemplated needs to involve a leadership challenge within the ANC to accommodate Zuma faction (iAfrica).
While entering into coalition, South Africa is likely to witness a big change in its political system. The results of these negotiations will define the economic priorities and the government’s agenda in the following years. It is even more so given the implications of the choices made in the context of both domestic stability and investor confidence internationally.
The exact distribution of the seats in the National Assembly will decide on the next president. Cyril Ramaphosa, the incumbent president, will also remain in power if the ANC secures a desirable coalition. The next few weeks will be a vital time since the commencement of the coalition talks that determine future governance and policies of South Africa (Elections. org. za).
Also read: 2024 Election Results: ANC’s Strong Grip on Gauteng in Jeopardy?
