South African motorists can look forward to some relief at the pumps in September, with Petrol prices expected to fall after a period of high costs. The combination of a more favourable rand-to-dollar exchange rate and declining global oil prices has created an over-recovery that will likely translate into reduced petrol and diesel costs.

Contents

Expected Price Cuts

According to the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) data for the third week of August, petrol prices are projected to decline modestly, while diesel drivers will see a more significant reduction:

Petrol 93: decrease of 14 cents per litre
Petrol 95: decrease of 6 cents per litre
Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 51 cents per litre
Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 52 cents per litre

This turnaround is particularly welcome considering that at the start of August, fuel costs were on the rise due to a weaker rand against the US dollar.

Oil Market Trends

A key factor behind the easing of fuel prices is the continued drop in global oil markets. Crude oil has already fallen by around 10% this year, with August prices lower than those seen in July. Analysts point out that market sentiment remains bearish, as OPEC+ has increased production and global demand is softening.

Geopolitical tensions have also influenced oil trade flows. The United States has signaled tougher import tariffs on India, citing concerns over its continued purchases of Russian crude. President Trump’s administration has hinted at doubling duties on Indian imports, a move that has stirred uncertainty in global energy markets. Despite these developments, oil prices have stayed down, contributing positively to South Africa’s projected fuel relief.

Rand Recovery Brings Stability

Another boost has come from the rand’s surprising resilience in August. Traditionally seen as volatile, the local currency held steady despite global headwinds such as US tariffs, higher local inflation, and international geopolitical risks.

This relative stability helped cushion fuel price pressures. Early in the month, the rand had a negative impact of about 20 cents per litre, but by mid-August, it was contributing positively adding around 0.3 cents to the over-recovery.

Analysts from Nedbank note that investors have been cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium. The stronger dollar, supported by the Fed’s signals of prolonged higher interest rates, has put some pressure on emerging market currencies, but the rand has managed to remain in a narrow trading range.

Outlook for Motorists

While the cuts may be small on petrol, the bigger savings on diesel will bring noticeable relief to logistics companies, farmers, and everyday consumers relying on transport. With oil prices trending lower and the rand showing signs of stability, the September adjustment is a welcome breather for South Africans already stretched by high living costs.