Expected Petrol Price Decrease for August Revealed: What You Need to Know

South African motorists can expect some relief at the pumps in August 2025 — here’s the latest on fuel price projections, why petrol is dropping and diesel rising, and what to expect inland vs coastal.

Relief for Motorists: Petrol Prices Set to Drop in August

SA drivers can breathe a slight sigh of relief this August, as mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to a decrease in petrol prices, despite global market volatility. While petrol drivers may enjoy some reprieve, diesel users aren’t as lucky, with price hikes looming on the horizon.

Here’s what you need to know about the expected fuel price changes for August 2025, including the global and local factors influencing the trends.

Petrol Drops, But Diesel Takes a Hit

According to the latest CEF data, petrol prices are expected to decrease by between 20 and 24 cents per litre, while diesel is facing an increase of about 62 to 63 cents per litre.

Projected Fuel Price Adjustments – Mid-Month Snapshot

Note: The CEF does not provide daily price data for LP Gas.

Fuel Price Breakdown: Inland vs Coastal (August vs July)

Let’s take a closer look at how the actual pump prices may shape up across different regions:

Inland Prices

Coastal Prices

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Why Is Petrol Dropping?

Petrol’s slight relief can be attributed to a combination of factors:

• Global oil prices have dipped back below $70 a barrel after peaking above $80 in June due to tensions in the Middle East. This drop followed signs of a shaky but ongoing truce in the region.
• Brent crude has fallen about 8% this year, influenced by global oversupply and Trump-led trade tensions with Russia and China.
• Despite geopolitical volatility, international product prices for petrol remain stable, allowing for modest recoveries in South Africa.

Why Is Diesel Rising?

Diesel isn’t enjoying the same trend. In fact, international diesel prices have diverged from petrol, edging upward. This is largely due to:

• An increase in global diesel demand, particularly in colder regions and for industrial use.
• A supply squeeze on diesel exports from Russia, triggered by international trade and tariff threats.
• A shift in the global trade landscape, with India and China still buying Russian oil, but under increasing scrutiny.

Rand vs Dollar: Holding the Line

Despite recent pressure on the rand, it has managed to stay below R18 to the US dollar — an encouraging sign for local fuel pricing.

• The rand’s relative strength helped build the current petrol over-recovery.
• The dollar gained some ground following U.S. trade deal speculation, but economists still note a “taco trade” tendency — where threats are rarely followed by action.

Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop noted that “uncertainty still persists” and the market remains risk-averse, but the resilient rand has softened potential fuel hikes.

What to Expect

While the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) will only announce final prices near month-end, these projections offer a strong indication of what lies ahead.

Motorists can tentatively expect:

• Cheaper petrol, both inland and on the coast.
• Higher diesel prices, especially for freight and industrial transport.
• A moderate increase in illuminating paraffin, impacting low-income households.

Stay tuned for the official announcement, and in the meantime, maybe hold off on filling that tank just a little longer if you drive petrol.

*Graphs from BusinessTech

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