A 12-day whirlwind of missiles, megatonnage and megaphone diplomacy pauses—what the Trump-brokered truce means for nukes, markets and a region on edge.
Just after midnight (GMT +2) on 24 June 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Israel and Iran had accepted a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE,” halting the most direct clash the long-rival neighbours have ever fought. The ceasefire came only days after U.S. B-2 bombers and Tomahawk-armed submarines hammered Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, and after Tehran lobbed missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar in retaliation. Whether the guns stay silent remains uncertain, but the 12-day war’s after-shocks are already reshaping diplomacy, markets and regional fault-lines.
1. How the Ceasefire Came Together
- 13 June: Israel launches surprise strikes at Iranian nuclear facilities.
- 22 June: U.S. joins in; seven B-2s drop fourteen bunker-busters, while a U.S. sub fires two-dozen Tomahawks.
- 24 June, 00:15 EDT (06:15 GMT+2): Trump posts on Truth Social: “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT.”
- 24 June, morning: Both sides fire one last volley—prompting Trump to scold Israel (“don’t drop those bombs”) and Iran alike.
Diplomats from Qatar and Oman confirmed they shuttled draft terms between Tehran, Washington and Jerusalem in a 72-hour sprint, with the UAE underwriting a de-escalation fund for civilian reconstruction.
2. Early Violations and Trump’s Public Rebuke
Within hours of the truce, Iran fired a small salvo of rockets toward northern Israel, while the Israel Defense Forces hit what it called “regime targets” near Tehran. Speaking on the White House lawn before leaving for the NATO summit in The Hague, Trump said both sides had flouted the deal—“especially Israel,” punctuating his frustration with an f-bomb.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the IAF “acted with the same determination” it would show against any future Iranian nuclear reboot, a warning echoed by Defence Minister Israel Katz.
3. Did U.S. Strikes Cripple Iran’s Nuclear Programme?
Confusion reigns. An initial Defense Intelligence Agency leak suggested the bombardment merely delayed enrichment by “months.” But CIA Director John Ratcliffe countered on 25 June that “several key facilities were destroyed” and rebuilding could take years, a view seconded by Israel’s Atomic Energy Commission.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi shrugged off the damage, declaring “no one in Iran will give up this technology,” while hard-liners in parliament drafted a bill to expel IAEA inspectors.
READ: July 2025 Petrol Price: Are We Going to Be Paying More or Less on The Tanks?
4. Winners, Losers and ‘The 12-Day War’
- Trump: Claims a diplomatic win and hints at a Nobel nod.
- Israel: Says the strikes set Iran back “by years,” yet now faces renewed pressure to halt its Gaza offensive.
- Iran: Celebrates in Tehran’s Azadi Square, framing survival as victory and vowing to rebuild.
- Gaza & Lebanon: Hope the pause frees bandwidth for ceasefire talks closer to home.
- Great-Power Bystanders: Russia brands U.S. moves “unprovoked,” China accuses Washington of “violating the UN Charter,” while the EU scrambles to salvage the soon-expiring 2015 JCPOA framework.
5. Diplomatic Openings
Speaking in The Hague on 25 June, Trump said U.S.–Iran talks will start “next week,” adding he’s “not sure a deal is necessary” yet musing about “some kind of relationship.” The UN Security Council, meanwhile, called the truce a chance to “avoid catastrophic escalation” and urged inspections to resume.
6. Market Ripples
Brent crude plunged 6 % to $67.14 a barrel as traders priced out Strait-of-Hormuz risk; defence-stock futures dipped on ceasefire hopes but bounced when violations surfaced. Analysts warn volatility will remain high until inspectors confirm Iran’s centrifuges are offline.
7. What to Watch Next
| Clock | Question | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 7 days | Do U.S.–Iran talks actually begin? | Sets the track for a post-JCPOA regime. |
| 30 days | Have IAEA cameras returned? | The only way to verify “severe damage” claims. |
| 90 days | Gaza front: ceasefire or new flare-up? | Israel’s focus may pivot back once Iran front cools. |
| 6 months | Oil supply routes stable? | An uptick in Gulf tanker attacks could reignite risk premiums. |
Also read: Foreign Policy Experts Advise ANC to Stay Neutral on Iran-Israel Conflict
