South African motorists and businesses could soon enjoy welcome financial relief at the fuel pumps, as both petrol and diesel prices are projected to fall for a fourth consecutive month in June 2025. The most substantial drop is expected in diesel prices, potentially reaching their lowest point since early 2022.
Diesel Set for Major Decline
According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) as of 19 May, wholesale diesel prices could decrease by as much as 61 cents per litre. Both the 0.005% (50ppm) and 0.05% (500ppm) sulphur diesel grades are expected to fall between 53c and 61c per litre. This would bring inland diesel prices to around R18.37 (50ppm) and R18.41 (500ppm), while coastal regions may see prices dip as low as R17.58.
If these over-recoveries hold until the end of the month, diesel prices in June could return to levels last seen in February 2022. This would provide significant cost savings for industries such as agriculture, logistics, and transportation—sectors that depend heavily on diesel to power their operations.
Petrol and Paraffin Also Expected to Drop
While the drop in diesel is the headline news, petrol prices are also expected to continue their downward trend, albeit more modestly. Current projections suggest that both 93 and 95 Unleaded petrol could fall by 25c to 30c per litre.
Inland motorists are currently paying R21.29 for 93 ULP and R21.40 for 95 ULP, while coastal prices for 95 ULP sit at R20.60. These figures follow a May reduction of 21c to 22c per litre.
Illuminating paraffin, a key energy source for many lower-income households, is also poised for a significant decrease of 56c per litre, further easing the financial burden on consumers.
Factors Behind the Price Drops
Several factors are contributing to the expected cuts in June:
- Stable Rand-Dollar Exchange Rate: The relative strength of the rand has helped keep fuel import costs in check.
- Brent Crude Oil Prices: Global oil prices have stabilized below $80 a barrel, with Brent Crude even dropping to $66 amid easing trade tensions between China and the U.S.
- OPEC+ Supply Increases: Additional output from oil-producing nations has helped reduce pressure on global supply.
- Potential US-Iran Nuclear Deal: Speculation around renewed nuclear talks has raised hopes of more Iranian oil entering the global market.
Despite these encouraging signs, market analysts have urged caution, noting that geopolitical instability and unpredictable global demand could impact prices in the latter half of the year.
Final Fuel Price Announcement Due Soon
It’s important to remember that these price forecasts are based on unaudited data and do not account for factors like retail margin changes or slate levy adjustments. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will make the official fuel price announcement at the end of May, with the changes set to take effect on Wednesday, 4 June.
For now, the outlook for June remains optimistic, especially for diesel users, who may soon benefit from the lowest prices seen in over three years.
Related article: Official Petrol Price Drops for May 2025: What You Need to Know About the Decrease
