As 2025 unfolds, South Africans are once again grappling with the perennial issue of rising petrol prices. Despite a modest increase in petrol costs on 1 January, the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates that February could deliver a harsher blow to motorists’ wallets. On the current trajectory, fuel prices are expected to rise significantly, with predictions suggesting increases ranging between R0.50 and R0.75 per litre, depending on the type of fuel.

Petrol Prices’ Predictions and Key Drivers

The CEF, which operates under the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), provides monthly forecasts to help the nation prepare for potential adjustments. For February 2025, the petrol prices’ predictions are worrying:

Petrol 93: +68 cents per litre
Petrol 95: +64 cents per litre
Diesel 0.05%: +70 cents per litre
Diesel 0.005%: +74 cents per litre
Illuminating Paraffin: +49 cents per litre

These figures, captured on 3 January, are not yet final. The DMRE relies on the CEF’s data but only confirms price adjustments at the end of each month, implementing them on the first Wednesday of the following month—set for 5 February in this case.

Two major factors influence these petrol prices:

Global Oil Prices: A steep increase in Brent crude oil prices since December 2024 has significantly impacted predictions. Prices have surged past $76 per barrel, creating pressure on fuel costs locally.
Rand/US Dollar Exchange Rate: A weakening Rand has compounded the issue, making imports more expensive. The currency’s recent volatility has seen it trading at approximately R18.53 to the Dollar.

Economic Implications

The ripple effects of rising petrol prices extend beyond the pumps. Higher transport costs often lead to increased prices for goods and services, placing additional strain on consumers already grappling with inflation and economic uncertainty. For many households, this marks a challenging start to the year, with budgets already stretched thin.

A Glimmer of Hope?

While the outlook appears grim, there is still potential for a reversal. A stronger Rand or a decline in global oil prices could ease the pressure. However, the opposite remains a possibility, which could result in even sharper increases than currently forecast.

A Familiar Burden

Motorists across the country are bracing themselves for what feels like an annual tradition of Febuworry. As petrol prices continue to climb, calls for greater stability in global markets and local economic policy grow louder. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether South Africans face a minor inconvenience or a significant financial strain at the pumps.

Until then, the best motorists can do is plan their budgets carefully, stay informed, and hope for a more favourable outcome in the global energy markets.