Eskom Load Shedding Warning: South Africa’s energy crisis continues to unfold as Eskom faces unplanned power outages exceeding the critical 13,000MW threshold, raising concerns that load shedding could strike at any time. Despite Eskom’s efforts to stabilise the national grid, the latest data reveals a troubling trend that could affect power availability throughout the winter season.
Unplanned Power Outages Surge Above 13,000MW
Eskom’s winter outlook for 2025 initially suggested no load shedding if unplanned outages stayed below 13,000MW. However, recent data has shattered this optimistic projection. From May 30 to June 5, 2025, unplanned outages averaged 14,644MW, an alarming increase of 2,315MW compared to the same period last year. This not only exceeds Eskom’s target but also indicates that the grid is under even more strain than anticipated.
Eskom Load Shedding Warning
Eskom’s warning regarding the state of the power system is clear. Unplanned outages consistently surpassing the 13,000MW threshold puts South Africa at significant risk of further load shedding. The utility has confirmed that, unless these outages are addressed, the country could face a worst-case scenario involving up to 21 days of Stage 2 load shedding.
In Eskom’s official report, the outlook for the winter period initially suggested that, under ideal conditions, no load shedding would be required. However, the utility did state that should demand exceed the 13,000MW threshold, the possibility of load shedding would remain.
“Load shedding could emerge at very short notice, especially given the unpredictable nature of breakdowns,” Eskom warned.
Past Load Shedding Trends
This surge in unplanned outages follows a trend that has plagued South Africa throughout 2025. Between January and April, Eskom had already implemented five rounds of load shedding, despite its summer outlook suggesting no load shedding, and only minimal Stage 1 outages at worst. This unexpected power crisis has left the country grappling with an uncertain future as Eskom works to meet energy demands.
Between May 13 and 15, 2025, Stage 2 load shedding was briefly implemented, affecting evening peak periods. The sudden return of load shedding during the early winter months highlights the fragile state of South Africa’s energy infrastructure.
Eskom’s Winter Plan at Risk
Eskom’s winter plan was designed to avoid load shedding entirely. However, with unplanned outages regularly exceeding 13,000MW, the outlook has already fallen short. Experts and officials are calling for urgent intervention, as the country cannot afford a return to widespread outages that will strain both the economy and daily life.
The Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA) highlighted that while some progress has been made, the country remains on a “fine edge,” with the power grid’s stability still uncertain. The council’s chief economist, André Lourens, noted:
“While we have seen some positive improvements, especially in terms of energy availability (EAF), the fact remains that unplanned outages are still significantly above Eskom’s 13,000MW threshold, which could trigger further load shedding if the situation worsens.”
The Path Forward
Despite these setbacks, there is cautious optimism. According to the MCSA, the reduction in Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) usage and a decrease in planned maintenance contributed to a slight improvement in energy availability. The EAF increased by almost three percentage points in May, rising to 59.3%, reflecting the seasonal adjustments made by Eskom as winter demand increases.
However, this progress remains precarious. The ongoing maintenance and repair of key power stations are vital, but the underlying fragility of the system remains. Should unplanned outages continue to exceed the 13,000MW threshold, load shedding could become a more frequent occurrence.
The MCSA’s Lourens summed it up, saying, “Load shedding was contained to three days in May, but the fact that it re-emerged, even if limited, serves as a reminder of ongoing generation constraints.”
A Delicate Balance
Eskom’s latest load shedding warning underscores the volatility of South Africa’s energy sector. While improvements have been made, the risks associated with unplanned outages remain high, with experts warning that load shedding could reappear at short notice.
For now, Eskom maintains that the national grid remains stable, but with more than 2,000MW potentially lost between June 16 and July 20, 2025, the risk of Stage 2 load shedding is still very real. Eskom’s commitment to addressing these issues is critical, but so too is the need for broader investment in energy diversification to safeguard South Africa’s future.
As the winter season continues, all eyes will be on Eskom’s ability to stabilise the grid and prevent further load shedding. If South Africa is to avoid a full-blown energy crisis, both Eskom and the government must act swiftly to address the ongoing breakdowns and reinforce the country’s power infrastructure.
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