Political analysts caution that internal ANC divisions and DA dissatisfaction may jeopardise South Africa’s fragile government of national unity unless urgent cohesion is achieved.
South Africa’s experiment with coalition politics through its Government of National Unity (GNU) has reached a crucial tipping point. Political experts are warning that unless the African National Congress (ANC) firmly embraces its uneasy partnership with the Democratic Alliance (DA), the GNU could spiral into dysfunction or even collapse entirely.
In the wake of a chaotic budget vote, analysts say the coalition’s foundation is cracking under political manoeuvring, internal factionalism within the ANC, and DA frustrations over its limited influence in policy decisions.
Fractures Revealed After Budget Vote Fallout
The tension came to a head during the recent national budget vote, which exposed deep fault lines within the coalition. Despite eventually supporting the budget, the DA expressed outrage over how the process unfolded, especially regarding key issues like the Expropriation Bill, Basic Education Laws Amendment Act, and the contentious National Health Insurance (NHI) — all of which they argue were sidelined from the budget debate but tied to it in backdoor bargaining.
Political economy analyst Daniel Silke said the friction points to a bigger issue: lack of cohesion and mutual trust. “Even if the GNU continues, it’s going to be fractious, unsteady, and relatively volatile,” Silke explained, noting that although both the ANC and DA have reasons to stay the course, their ideological differences and power struggles could derail progress.
The DA’s Dilemma: Spectators or Steering the Ship?
DA leader John Steenhuisen has been vocal about the party’s dissatisfaction, asserting the DA’s desire to actively shape South Africa’s direction rather than merely support ANC decisions from the sidelines.
“We didn’t join government to be spectators,” Steenhuisen stated. “We want to help steer this country economically and socially in a direction that benefits all South Africans — not just stand on the lower decks while others steer.”
Yet some experts believe the DA may be playing a high-stakes political game. “The DA’s threats to exit the GNU are more about pressure and leverage than actual intent to leave,” Silke noted. “They benefit from being in the room, even if they don’t control the agenda.”
Inside the ANC: A Party at War With Itself
Even more destabilising, however, is the internal rift within the ANC. The party is reportedly divided into factions — one led by left-leaning members calling for the DA’s expulsion from the GNU, and another more pragmatic group favouring stability and continued cooperation.
ANC chair Gwede Mantashe was furious over Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula’s so-called “secret” negotiation team, which allegedly gave the DA mixed signals during the budget talks. ANC Chief Whip Mdumiseni Ntuli was reportedly “undermined,” raising questions about who really controls the governing party’s direction.
“This kind of backroom chaos only further weakens the GNU,” said Silke. “If the ANC can’t speak with one voice, how can a national unity government be expected to function?”
The Rise of ActionSA and a Potential Shift in Coalition Dynamics
One curveball in the coalition saga came from ActionSA, led by Herman Mashaba, which supported the ANC in the budget vote. This move fuelled speculation that ActionSA may join the GNU or become an informal partner.
Independent analyst Sandile Swana believes such a move would not lead to collapse. “Even if membership of the GNU shifts, the involved parties are unlikely to want the government to collapse. No one wants to be seen as the spoiler,” he said.
The Need for a Cohesive National Vision
While the GNU was initially formed as a stabilising mechanism, analysts argue that survival alone is not enough. A lack of unified vision, policy cohesion, and leadership clarity could render it ineffective.
“The GNU is a stop-gap — it’s not a cure,” Silke emphasised. “We need a cohesive national plan that outlines a shared direction for the economy, governance, and service delivery. Otherwise, we’re just patching up leaks on a sinking ship.”
If the GNU is to withstand the test of time and the upcoming 2026 local elections, analysts say it needs to move from political convenience to purposeful collaboration. That includes embracing uncomfortable partnerships and making ideological compromises.
The Clock Is Ticking on GNU Unity
The government of national unity was born out of electoral necessity, but its future hinges on the ability of the ANC and DA to manage internal dissent and align on a common vision for South Africa’s future.
The GNU’s next steps could determine whether South Africa enters a new era of stable coalition governance — or descends into political gridlock and economic uncertainty.
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