Energy Analysts Predict Continued Struggles for South Africa’s Power Grid
Eskom and Load-Shedding: South Africa’s ongoing energy crisis took another twist as Eskom suspended Stage 3 load-shedding over the weekend. While the brief reprieve from power outages might feel like a relief, experts caution that the challenges facing the nation’s electricity supply are far from over.
A Temporary Reprieve Amid a Looming Crisis
Eskom attributed the recent bout of Stage 3 load-shedding to a “temporary setback,” citing several breakdowns at key power stations. The utility stated the measure was necessary to replenish reserves and stabilize the grid in response to unexpected challenges.
“This is to ensure that we maintain adequate reserves, allowing the power grid to remain reliable, stable, and capable of handling unexpected challenges,” said Eskom in its statement.
The interruptions marked a stark reminder of the fragility of South Africa’s energy supply, which had seen nearly 10 months of uninterrupted electricity following the implementation of Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan (GRP).
Expert Warnings: “The Worst Is Yet to Come”
Despite structural improvements and efficiency gains under the GRP, energy analysts remain sceptical about the long-term stability of the system. Professor Sampson Mamphweli of the South African National Energy Development Institute highlighted the unpredictability of Eskom’s ageing coal fleet as a major concern.
“Eskom’s coal fleet is not predictable, especially the old power stations,” Mamphweli said. “Several units have broken down in recent days, and delays in returning them to service have exacerbated the situation.”
Analyst Tshepo Mahlaba echoed similar sentiments, warning that optimism might be misplaced. “We celebrated too early. Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) needs to be above 85%, but it has hovered around 59%. The worst is yet to come, especially as demand rises with the adoption of electric vehicles and solar systems.”
Load-Shedding’s Financial and Environmental Impact
While the GRP reportedly saved R16.3 billion in diesel costs over the past year, the utility faces mounting challenges, including environmental constraints, water shortages, and mechanical failures. Eskom has also been criticized for its resistance to fully embrace renewable energy solutions, with some experts pointing to the need for accelerated implementation of embedded generation and modernized infrastructure.
What Lies Ahead for South Africans
As Eskom grapples with its ageing coal fleet and the demands of maintaining grid stability, South Africans are urged to brace for further load-shedding disruptions. The National Energy Regulator of South Africa’s recent refusal to grant Eskom a 36% tariff hike adds further pressure to an already strained system.
For now, the brief suspension of Stage 3 load-shedding offers little assurance that the country’s power woes are behind it. As Mahlaba aptly put it, “This is Eskom’s mandate—keeping the lights on is not a favour, it’s their job.”
Also read: Nersa Approves 12.7% Eskom Tariff Hike for 2025—Far Below Requested 36.15% Increase
