As South Africa heads into the festive season, the weather forecast remains uncertain, with meteorologists pointing to a weak La Niña system as the key driver behind potential intense storms. While rainfall is predicted to be below average, the risk of severe weather events remains high, particularly in Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal. Here’s what you need to know about the upcoming wet season and its potential impact.

La Niña’s Influence on South African Weather

La Niña, a climatic phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, typically brings increased rainfall to southern Africa. However, this year’s La Niña event is anticipated to be weak, resulting in a less predictable weather pattern.

Meteorologist Michelle du Plessis explains that the weak La Niña may not deliver excessive above-normal rainfall. Instead, sporadic intense storms could mark the festive season, especially in the latter part of December. This means that while consistent heavy rains are unlikely, isolated severe storms remain a significant threat.

Gauteng’s Rainfall Forecast: A Waiting Game

Gauteng, South Africa’s economic hub, will experience a dry spell over the weekend, with rain only expected to return early next week. According to South African Weather Service forecaster Thabo Magoro, the first significant rain for December is forecast for Monday, with showers likely to hit the eastern parts of Gauteng, central Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal.

Recent rainfall data shows Joburg receiving only 6mm of rain earlier this week, while Barberton in Mpumalanga recorded 22mm, and Tshanowa in Limpopo measured 13mm. This scattered distribution reflects the sporadic nature of rainfall typical of weak La Niña conditions.

Historical Rainfall Patterns in Gauteng

To understand the current forecast, it’s helpful to look at historical rainfall patterns. According to SA Explorer:

Pretoria receives an annual average of 573mm, with the bulk occurring in summer, particularly in January when rainfall peaks at around 110mm.
Randburg in Johannesburg records about 548mm of annual rainfall, again concentrated in the summer months.

While these averages provide a baseline, the weak La Niña system could disrupt usual patterns, leading to below-average rainfall interspersed with heavy, localized storms.

What to Expect for December and Beyond

The weather forecast for December remains ambiguous. Vox Weather meteorologist Michelle du Plessis notes that while La Niña conditions develop slowly, their impact could still result in isolated, intense storms. The University of Pretoria’s seasonal forecast also suggests that the 2024-25 La Niña event will be weak, making it difficult to predict sustained above-normal rainfall.

For those planning outdoor activities during the festive season, it’s essential to stay updated with daily weather forecasts. Emergency services have been placed on high alert to respond to potential thunderstorms, particularly in urban areas like Johannesburg.

Preparedness for Intense Storms

Given the likelihood of sporadic intense storms, South Africans should remain vigilant:

Stay Informed: Regularly check weather updates from the South African Weather Service or local meteorologists.
Emergency Kits: Ensure you have emergency supplies, including flashlights, batteries, and first aid kits.
Travel Caution: Avoid traveling during heavy storms, as flash floods and reduced visibility can pose significant risks.
Home Safety: Secure loose outdoor items and ensure gutters and drains are clear to prevent water damage.

South Africa’s festive season weather outlook remains uncertain due to the weak La Niña system. While below-average rainfall is expected, the potential for intense, localized storms remains high. As the nation prepares for the holidays, staying informed and prepared will be essential to navigating the unpredictable weather patterns.