South African motorists are set to see some relief at the pumps in October, thanks to a combination of lower global oil prices and a stronger rand against the US dollar. These shifts have reversed earlier predictions of petrol price hikes and instead brought about small but welcome adjustments.
Small Adjustments for Petrol, Bigger Relief for Diesel
At the beginning of the month, data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggested a potential 20c per litre increase for both grades of petrol. However, the latest figures paint a different picture:
- Petrol 93 – no change
- Petrol 95 – increase of 8 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% – decrease of 10 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% – decrease of 8 cents per litre
While these adjustments are modest, especially for petrol users, diesel drivers will feel the most benefit, albeit marginally.
Why Petrol Prices Are Easing
The shift in outlook is largely driven by favorable international and local conditions:
- Falling global oil demand: Traders have scaled back their forecasts due to weaker global growth, partly influenced by US tariffs.
- OPEC supply boost: Oil-producing nations have increased production, with some supply caps lifted to allow greater output.
- Stronger rand: The local currency has strengthened slightly against the dollar, making imports cheaper. This improvement stems from a weaker dollar amid growing concerns about the US’s fiscal health.
Risks Ahead
Despite the improved outlook, the relief may be short-lived. The global oil market remains volatile, with possible sanctions on Russia’s oil industry threatening to disrupt supply chains. Should China and India major buyers of Russian oil be forced to source elsewhere, prices could spike temporarily.
Outlook for Motorists
For now, October brings a rare reprieve for South Africans at the pumps, especially diesel users. But with the global energy landscape still uncertain, motorists may need to brace themselves for further fluctuations in the months ahead.
Related article: October Petrol Price Hike Expected to Hit SA Motorists Hard
