As South Africans head into a new month, fuel price forecasts from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) point to mixed news: a petrol price drop is expected, while diesel users should brace for another hike.
Bigger Petrol Prices Cut Expected
Month-end data from the CEF reveals a positive outlook for petrol users, with an anticipated cut of around 30 cents per litre. The over-recovery on petrol has grown stronger throughout July, largely due to declining international oil prices and a relatively firm rand. For example:
- Petrol 93: Estimated drop of 35 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: Estimated drop of 30 cents per litre
These decreases reflect continued over-recoveries, which improved as the month progressed.
Diesel Price Hike Still on the Cards
Unfortunately, the diesel price trajectory is heading in the opposite direction. CEF data shows that while under-recoveries have stabilised, they remain significant enough to warrant price increases next week:
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Expected increase of 65 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Expected increase of 63 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: Estimated rise of 29 cents per litre
The diverging trends between petrol and diesel began in June due to geopolitical instability and supply constraints affecting diesel markets more severely.
Market Movements: Oil, Rand, and Global Events
Although oil prices recently climbed back above $70 a barrel—driven by geopolitical concerns and potential supply risks tied to OPEC+ producers—petrol has still benefited from the earlier downward trend in crude prices. The stronger rand throughout much of July also helped offset global pricing pressures.
However, late-month volatility in global markets has caused the rand to weaken, dropping from R17.70/$ to around R17.93/$. This drop is influenced by two major developments:
- The return of US tariffs: The Trump administration is set to reintroduce the so-called Liberation Day tariffs on August 1st. South Africa is facing a potential 30% tariff on key exports, such as food and vehicles, which could harm local industries and reduce foreign earnings.
- Interest rate speculation: The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is due to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, 31 July. Analysts are divided, but a 25-basis-point cut is on the table. A further reduction could put additional strain on the rand, narrowing the interest rate gap between South Africa and the United States.
Economic Context: What’s Driving the Numbers?
According to Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, South Africa’s fuel price dynamics are now tightly linked to both international politics and monetary policy decisions. She notes that:
- Tariffs will undermine export competitiveness and hurt economic performance.
- Any SARB rate cuts could place additional pressure on the rand.
- A weaker rand makes imported fuel more expensive, potentially worsening diesel price hikes.
Final Outlook: Petrol Relief, Diesel Pain
Unless there is a dramatic shift in oil prices or currency strength in the final hours of July, motorists can expect:
- A petrol price cut of up to 35 cents per litre starting next week.
- A diesel price increase of over 60 cents per litre, which could strain freight and agricultural sectors.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will make the official announcement before changes come into effect on Wednesday, 7 August 2025.
Alternative Headlines:
- Fuel Forecast: Petrol Set to Drop, Diesel Prices to Climb in August
- Petrol Relief Coming, but Diesel Costs to Rise Sharply
- Fuel Prices Split: Cheaper Petrol, Costlier Diesel Expected
- Rand Weakens as Tariffs Loom—Here’s How It Affects Fuel Prices
- Diesel Price Hike Still Looms Despite Petrol Over-Recovery
South African motorists can look forward to some relief at the pumps with a petrol price cut expected next week, while diesel users will face another sharp increase. The final changes will depend on global oil trends and the rand’s performance, but current indicators suggest a mixed bag for fuel consumers in August.
Related article: July 2025 Petrol Price Increase Confirmed
