South Africa’s retail petrol prices have roughly doubled in nominal terms since 2015, driven by oil market swings, a weaker Rand and rising taxes. For example, inland 93‑octane petrol averaged about R12.15/l in 2015 and around R22.76/l by 2023 (see Table 1). The upward trend was punctuated by volatile swings – a global oil crash pushed prices down in 2015–16, the COVID slump in 2020 led to sharp temporary cuts, and oil prices surged in 2021–2022.. StatsSA noted that fuel prices hit a record high in late 2021 (inland 95‑octane at R20.29/l in Dec 2021). Inland 95‑octane has consistently tracked slightly above 93‑octane, while diesel (0.05% sulphur) has generally been priced a few Rands lower than petrol (e.g. ~R10.77/l in 2015 vs R14.40/l in 2019) as shown in Table 1.

Contents

Year	Inland 93 ULP (R/l)	Inland 95 ULP (R/l)	Inland Diesel 0.05% (R/l)
2015	12.15	12.41	10.77
2016	12.35	12.64	10.64
2017	13.39	13.62	11.74
2018	15.19	15.42	13.95
2019	15.48	15.74	14.40
2020	14.50	14.75	12.93
2021	17.36	17.56	15.14
2022	22.48	22.80	22.35
2023	22.76	23.14	21.52

Table 1. Annual average inland pump prices for key fuels (DMRE data).

Regional Price Differences

Petrol is generally cheaper at the coast than inland (e.g. Gauteng vs Western Cape). This is due to lower transport and distribution costs. For instance, in Jan 2015 inland 93‑octane was R11.02/l vs coast R10.83/l (inland ~19c higher). By Jan 2024 the gap had widened slightly: inland 93‑octane ~R22.17/l vs coast R21.77/l (about R0.40 difference). Similar inland/coast spreads apply to 95‑octane and diesel (diesel inland is typically ~R0.20–0.30 higher than at the coast). In general, coastal provinces (e.g. Western Cape, KZN) pay tens of cents per litre less than inland (Gauteng/Free State) on the same date.

Inflation-Adjusted Prices

Adjusting for inflation shows much smaller real gains. South Africa’s CPI roughly halved the growth of nominal fuel costs since 2015. For example, inland 93‑octane averaged ~R12.15/l in 2015, but about R18.1/l in 2024 Rand (compared to R22.8 nominal) – only ~26% higher in real terms. In other words, while nominal petrol prices rose ~87% from 2015 to 2023, inflation (~50%) means consumers pay only ~25–30% more in real terms than a decade ago. This reflects that much of the price rise reflects general inflation (weaker Rand, higher oil). (StatsSA CPI data show headline inflation fell to ~3% by 2024.)

Global Oil, Exchange Rate and Taxes

Crude oil prices: The basic fuel price (crude + shipping) is driven by international oil. Brent crude ranged from ~$53/bbl in 2015, dipped to ~$42 in 2020, then spiked above $100 in 2022. These swings feed directly into local fuel costs.
Rand/US Dollar: A weaker Rand amplifies import costs. Over 2015–2023 the Rand moved from ~R12/$ to peaks around R18–R19/$, adding roughly 30–60% to the effective base price. (DMRE notes that the basic fuel price is “largely influenced by international price of crude oil and the R/$ exchange rate.”.)
Taxes & levies: Levies comprise a large share – about one-third of pump price. In Dec 2021 (95‑ULP) taxes+levies were R6.67/l out of R20.29. Key levies include the general fuel levy (~R3.80/l) and the Road Accident Fund levy (~R2.60–3.00/l on petrol). These charges have crept up over time with annual budgets. (For example, figure breakdown in 2021: Basic price R9.74 (48%), Taxes/levies R6.67 (33%).)

Nominal vs. Real Price Impact

In summary, South Africans are paying more for fuel now than a decade ago, but the increase is far less dramatic once inflation is considered. Nominal 93‑octane rose from about R11 in early 2015 to ~R21–22 today, yet adjusted for ~50% inflation this is only a modest real rise. Similarly, diesel (0.05%) moved from about R10.7 to R21.5 (nominal), a doubling, but again largely mirroring inflation. Thus, nominally prices have roughly doubled, but real (inflation-adjusted) prices are only ~25–30% higher than in 2015. Global oil trends, the Rand’s weakness, and rising fuel taxes explain most of this change.