Motorists across South Africa could see a modest drop in petrol prices this May, despite persistent volatility in the Rand’s performance. The latest indicators from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggest an over-recovery in fuel prices, offering a glimmer of hope for a slight adjustment in costs at the pumps. However, a lot still hinges on the Rand’s movement in the final stretch of April.
Encouraging Forecasts from the Central Energy Fund
Preliminary data from the CEF points toward a small but welcome drop in fuel prices for both petrol and diesel. The organisation’s early reports show an over-recovery in petrol prices, which means that fuel has been costing less on the international market compared to the amount motorists have been paying locally. This is typically a strong indicator of an upcoming price cut.
For unleaded petrol, the projected reductions are as follows:
- Unleaded 93-octane: Decrease of about 10 cents per litre
- Unleaded 95-octane: Decrease of roughly 14 cents per litre
Diesel users are in for slightly more significant relief, with forecasted decreases of:
- 500 ppm diesel: Down by approximately 35 cents per litre
- 50 ppm diesel: Down by around 36 cents per litre
International Product Prices Driving the Trend
The main driver behind these potential decreases is a downward trend in international petroleum product prices. While local fuel prices are affected by a number of factors, including taxes and levies, the cost of importing fuel plays a major role. The recent easing in global oil prices has created a favourable environment for price adjustments in South Africa.
Even though the Rand remained under pressure throughout March—contributing to an under-recovery on the exchange rate side—the reduction in international product prices has largely balanced out the impact. This has allowed for an overall over-recovery in fuel pricing, setting the stage for a possible decrease.
Cautious Optimism Amid Currency Uncertainty
Although current data points to a reduction, it’s important to note that these figures are not yet final. The Rand’s continued fluctuations could still affect the final calculations, as the exchange rate is a crucial part of the fuel pricing formula.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) will confirm the official fuel prices for May at the start of the month, with any changes taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 6 May 2025.
What This Means for Motorists
While the anticipated decreases may not be dramatic, they come at a time when South African consumers are feeling the pinch from rising living costs. Even a modest reduction at the pumps can provide some financial breathing room—especially for those planning long-distance travel or commuting regularly.
As always, it’s advisable to keep an eye on official announcements from the DMRE to stay informed on the final pricing. In the meantime, drivers can remain cautiously optimistic that the next fuel price update will offer at least some relief.
Related article: Another Petrol Price Drop Expected for May 2025
