A petrol price drop could be on the way for South African motorists next month, as the latest indicators suggest another fuel price cut is on the horizon for May.

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Fuel Price Relief on the Way

According to recent data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), a combination of lower international fuel prices and easing oil costs has created favorable conditions for another price drop. Current figures point to an over-recovery in fuel prices — meaning the local market has paid more than necessary — setting the stage for potential reductions.

Over-Recovery Suggests Positive Outlook

Petrol is showing an over-recovery of between 10 and 14 cents per litre, while diesel is tracking an even larger over-recovery of around 35 cents per litre. Illuminating paraffin, commonly used for heating and lighting, is also poised for a price drop of about 27 cents per litre.

Earlier reports for March highlighted an even more significant over-recovery, with petrol prices showing potential decreases of between 70 and 83 cents per litre and diesel at around 78 cents. This trend has largely been driven by falling global fuel product prices, although the rand’s weaker performance in March did limit the potential for bigger cuts.

Currency Volatility Still a Factor

Currency volatility has played a big role in the equation, with the rand coming under pressure from both local political uncertainty and shifting global conditions. Nonetheless, if international prices remain on their current trajectory, May is set to bring the second consecutive month of fuel price relief. This follows April’s notable cut, which saw inland 95 unleaded petrol prices fall by 72 cents, bringing the price per litre down to R21.62.

That said, early-month predictions should always be treated with caution, as international markets remain sensitive to ongoing economic and geopolitical developments.

Expected Price Adjustments for May

Unless global oil prices stage a sharp recovery or the rand depreciates significantly, motorists can likely expect the following changes:

Petrol 93: expected decrease of 10 cents per litre
Petrol 95: expected decrease of 14 cents per litre
Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): expected decrease of 35 cents per litre
Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): expected decrease of 36 cents per litre
Illuminating paraffin: expected decrease of 27 cents per litre

Global Oil Prices Drive Down Costs

The main driver behind the expected reductions is a decline in international oil prices. In recent weeks, global crude prices have softened amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. Although U.S. President Donald Trump has rolled back some tariffs on countries other than China, high tariffs remain in place for Chinese imports. Beijing, in turn, responded with steep retaliatory tariffs — currently at 125% on U.S. imports — while U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods remain as high as 145%.

Tariff Adjustments Offer Temporary Rand Relief

South Africa has seen some indirect benefit from global tariff adjustments, with the country’s tariffs temporarily reduced from 30% to 10% over a 90-day window. This development, alongside the easing of oil prices, has helped the rand recover slightly, climbing from an all-time low of R19.93 against the U.S. dollar to R19.31.

Political Uncertainty Weighs on the Rand

However, the local currency remains under pressure from domestic political uncertainty. The future of the Government of National Unity (GNU) is still unclear following the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) decision to vote against the 2025 National Budget. The budget ultimately passed, thanks to backing from Build One South Africa and ActionSA, two non-GNU parties.

Analysts warn that if the DA were to exit the GNU, it could trigger further instability in the currency market, with smaller, more populist parties gaining greater influence in parliament. For now, though, the signs are pointing to more savings for consumers at the fuel pumps in May — even if the expected reductions might not match the larger cuts seen in April.

Petrol Price Drop

Looking ahead, the signs remain positive for another petrol price drop in May. Although the expected cuts might not match April’s sizable decreases, motorists can still look forward to paying less at the pump — a welcome development amid ongoing global and domestic uncertainty.