Early signs from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicate that South African motorists could see further petrol price cuts in September, though diesel prices remain under pressure.
Positive Start for Petrol, Diesel Still Struggling
The first week of August 2025 shows an over-recovery for petrol prices between 5 and 10 cents per litre offering potential relief at the pumps next month. However, diesel is experiencing under-recoveries of 10 to 12 cents per litre, continuing the trend seen in July, when petrol prices fell slightly while diesel saw a notable hike.
Current recoveries are as follows:
- Petrol 93: ↓ 10 cents/litre
- Petrol 95: ↓ 5 cents/litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): ↑ 12 cents/litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): ↑ 10 cents/litre
- Illuminating paraffin: ↑ 7 cents/litre
While these early numbers aren’t a final prediction, they set the tone for the month ahead and highlight how market conditions must shift for a different outcome.
Rand vs Oil: A Tug of War
Unlike in July, the weaker rand is the main drag on fuel price recoveries, slicing about 12 cents per litre from potential savings. In contrast, lower global oil prices are giving petrol a 20-cent-per-litre boost and diesel a small positive push.
Oil prices have been sliding since mid-June, when tensions in the Middle East eased and fears of supply shortages gave way to concerns over oversupply. After peaking at $85 a barrel, Brent crude has dropped below $70, with current trading around $66.
Further pressure came after OPEC+ announced a production increase of 547,000 barrels per day for September, raising fears of a supply glut amid weaker global demand. Expectations of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire have also weighed on prices.
Diesel’s Supply Crunch Eases Slowly
Diesel’s recovery remains weaker than petrol’s, though the gap is narrowing. Supply constraints in July led to higher diesel prices locally. Global market analysis shows that strong aviation fuel demand and potential winter shortages in the northern hemisphere are still influencing diesel availability.
Analysts believe the imbalance between petrol and diesel prices will persist for months but shouldn’t worsen if current trends hold.
Rand Troubles Continue
The rand/dollar exchange rate remains volatile, driven largely by US dollar movements. The rand started the month weak, sliding to R18.35/$ after the US announced 30% tariffs on South African exports. Since then, it has strengthened to R17.68/$, benefiting from a softer dollar due to weaker US economic data.
However, economists caution that this is not a sign of rand strength but rather a reflection of global currency shifts. Locally, much of the US tariff impact has already been absorbed, though the long-term market effects are still uncertain.
If current patterns hold, September could bring modest relief for petrol users, while diesel costs may remain elevated. The final outcome will depend on how the rand performs against the dollar and whether oil prices maintain their downward trajectory. For now, motorists can look forward to a potential breather at the pumps, though the benefits will be felt more by petrol drivers than diesel users.
Related article: Will Petrol Prices Rise or Drop Next Week? Here’s What to Expect
