In the third quarter of 2024, South Africa’s official unemployment rate dropped to 32.1%, showing a significant decline from 33.5% in the previous quarter. This marks a hopeful shift in the country’s job market, after a challenging period characterized by high unemployment and economic uncertainty. The latest figures, released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), reflect a positive trend in job creation, with 294,000 additional jobs created between July and September.
Key Factors Driving the Decline
The 1.4 percentage point drop in unemployment from the second quarter of 2024 to the third quarter represents a promising development for South Africa’s labor market. Several factors have contributed to this decline, including improved employment figures in key sectors like community and social services, construction, and trade. These industries have shown growth, supporting the increase in the number of employed individuals.
Stats SA noted that overall, employment in South Africa rose to 16.9 million in the third quarter of 2024, with a 2.2% increase in total employment year-on-year, translating to the creation of 503,000 jobs. This is a positive step forward, especially as South Africa grapples with high unemployment rates and a sluggish economic recovery.
The decline in the official unemployment rate also reflects a reduction in the number of unemployed persons, which decreased by 373,000 to 8.0 million during the same period. Despite these improvements, experts have cautioned that the job market is still not absorbing the growing number of job seekers at a fast enough pace, especially among young people and young adults.
Youth Unemployment Remains a Challenge
While the overall unemployment rate has improved, youth unemployment in South Africa continues to be a pressing concern. According to the latest data, youth unemployment stands at a staggering 60.2%, with young adults facing an unemployment rate of 40.4%. This reflects a broader trend where more than a third of young South Africans are neither employed, nor enrolled in education or training.
The government’s efforts to address youth unemployment remain critical. Encouraging job creation in sectors that can absorb younger workers, as well as increasing access to vocational training and education, will be key to reducing these high figures. As it stands, many young people face significant barriers to entering the workforce, often due to a lack of experience or skills.
Job Losses in Key Industries
Despite the overall decline in unemployment, certain industries continue to struggle. The finance, private households, manufacturing, and transport sectors experienced job losses, which have weighed on the overall employment figures. These industries have been heavily impacted by a range of factors, including the broader economic slowdown, disruptions from global trade tensions, and challenges related to the energy crisis in South Africa.
While the construction and trade sectors have shown improvement, the lack of growth in other important industries highlights the need for a diversified and resilient economy. Economists caution that economic volatility, both domestically and internationally, may continue to impede faster growth in employment across the country.
Discouraged Work-Seekers and Economic Inactivity
One concerning trend highlighted in the report is the increase in discouraged work-seekers. These are individuals who have given up looking for work due to a lack of opportunities or repeated failures in securing employment. The number of discouraged workers rose by 160,000, or 5%, during the third quarter of 2024. Additionally, 54,000 individuals became economically inactive for reasons other than discouragement, bringing the total number of non-economically active people to 16.5 million.
These figures reflect the broader challenges in the job market, particularly the limited opportunities available for those actively seeking employment. Many individuals, especially in disadvantaged communities, face persistent barriers to entering the workforce, which leads to a growing pool of discouraged workers. This underscores the need for targeted policies that address not only job creation but also the broader structural factors that limit economic participation.
The Expanded Unemployment Rate and Economic Outlook
Despite the positive movement in the official unemployment rate, the expanded unemployment rate, which includes those who are discouraged from seeking work, remains high at 41.9%. This is only a slight improvement from the second quarter of 2024, reflecting the ongoing struggles in the labor market.
Looking ahead, economists such as Jacques Nel from Oxford Economics Africa suggest that the unemployment rate will likely continue to ease gradually over the next few quarters, driven by improved economic growth and recovery. However, the rate will likely remain high, as the pace of job creation may not be sufficient to absorb the growing number of new entrants into the job market.
Nedbank economist Johannes Khosa is also optimistic, stating that the employment outlook should improve over the next 12 to 18 months, as economic conditions improve, and sectors like trade and construction continue to grow. However, he notes that job creation will likely remain slow, and the unemployment rate will remain elevated.
South Africa’s unemployment rate dropping to 32.1% in the third quarter of 2024 is undoubtedly a positive development. It signals that the country’s labor market is showing signs of recovery, with job growth in key sectors. However, youth unemployment and discouraged workers remain major challenges, and the country still faces significant hurdles in fully addressing its unemployment crisis. Policymakers will need to continue focusing on strategies that promote job creation, education, and skill development to ensure sustainable progress toward reducing unemployment in the coming years.
